Bitcoin Faces Potential Decline as Peter Brandt Identifies "Three Blind Mice" Pattern

Three Blind Mice 

Renowned trader Peter Brandt has sparked concerns among Bitcoin (BTC) traders after identifying what he calls the "Three Blind Mice" pattern. This technical formation may signal a bearish trend for Bitcoin in the near future. However, despite short-term concerns, many analysts remain optimistic about BTC’s long-term prospects, especially as institutional interest grows through Bitcoin ETFs. Here’s a closer look at the situation.

Peter Brandt Highlights Potential Bitcoin Price Slump

On October 2, Peter Brandt posted an update on X (formerly Twitter), warning that Bitcoin might be forming the "Three Blind Mice" pattern, which he views as a continuation of the asset’s downtrend. This pattern previously appeared in late 2022, when BTC traded at $17,000 before undergoing a period of weakness, followed by an eventual breakout.

Brandt stressed that for Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum from November 2022, it would need to break above $71,000 and reach a new all-time high. Currently, BTC remains under pressure, continuing its trend of lower highs and lower lows.

Peter Brandt post on X

"Three Blind Mice" vs. Traditional "Three Black Crows" Pattern

Brandt's reference to the "Three Blind Mice" pattern seems to be a lighthearted take on the more traditional "Three Black Crows" pattern, often associated with a reversal of an uptrend. The playful name is likely inspired by the nursery rhyme, “Three Blind Mice, see how they run,” underscoring the potential for more declines in BTC’s price.

Three Blind Mice Pattern - Source Trading Vie

This pattern could mirror the bearish conditions of 2022, raising concerns among traders who are closely watching the market for any signs of further weakness.

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin’s recent price downturn is not only influenced by chart patterns but also by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, and concerns about the strength of the US economy have led some investors to reduce their risk exposure to assets like BTC.

In the first week of October, Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows of $243 million, marking the largest drawdown in a month. This uncertainty has led analysts to speculate that BTC could dip as low as $54,000 in the coming weeks if geopolitical tensions persist.

Bitcoin Whales Hold Off on Selling

While short-term concerns loom, data from CryptoQuant suggests that large Bitcoin holders, or whales, are holding off on selling their assets. As of October 2, analysis showed that newer whales, who have held BTC for less than five months, would only see a 1% profit at current prices, while older whales with more than five months of holdings are sitting at a 1.27 unrealized profit ratio.

If you're a new whale who just entered this bull run, bought #Bitcoin from old whales, and your profit is currently +1%, would you dump your bags on retail investors now? pic.twitter.com/NcykmkPOvI

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 2, 2024

This indicates that many whales may be waiting for better exit opportunities, further reducing selling pressure on Bitcoin in the short term.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Fourth Quarter Outlook

Despite Peter Brandt’s bearish outlook and short-term market challenges, analysts at CryptoQuant predict a bullish fourth quarter for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often performs well in Q4, particularly in halving years like 2024. For instance, in previous halving years (2012, 2016, 2020), BTC recorded gains of 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, during Q4.

CryptoQuant analysts believe that Bitcoin could see significant price growth in the coming months, with institutional interest through ETFs playing a pivotal role in boosting demand. In September, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.8 billion, signaling that institutional investors are positioning themselves for higher prices.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $85,000 to $100,000 by Year-End

While short-term volatility may persist, many experts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that if institutional demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could reach prices between $85,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2024.

The positive seasonality and historical performance during halving years are expected to support Bitcoin’s bullish run into the fourth quarter. However, a big increase in demand is necessary for BTC to reach its potential new highs.

Conclusion

Peter Brandt’s warning of a potential Bitcoin slump through the "Three Blind Mice" pattern has raised concerns, but the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic. Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty may lead to short-term volatility, but growing institutional interest through Bitcoin ETFs could drive significant price gains by year-end. Traders and investors will be closely watching Bitcoin’s performance as the crypto market enters a pivotal fourth quarter.